Boris Johnson overruled Sage scientists who called for harsher lockdown

Government advisers pushed for tougher measures than three-tier system, including closure of all pubs

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Boris Johnson overruled Government scientists who pressed for national lockdown measures such as stopping all household mixing and closing all pubs, it emerged on Monday night.

Papers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) show that the body called for an immediate introduction of national interventions, saying failure to take such measures could result in "a very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences".

Liverpool became the only region placed into the toughest tier of a new three-tier lockdown system on Monday, with intense negotiations still going on in other areas on Monday night.

Mr Johnson stepped back from imposing harsh new lockdown measures on other parts of the North after local leaders refused to accept them. Elected Mayors and council leaders believe they will be complicit in making businesses bankrupt if they agree to close pubs, gyms and leisure centres.

On Monday night, newly released Sage papers revealed that the Government's scientific advisers had called for national measures. In the documents, dated September 20 and 21, the scientists called for the immediate consideration of five national measures, saying none of them would be sufficient on their own.

"The shortlist of non-pharmaceutical interventions that should be considered for immediate introduction includes a circuit-breaker (short period of lockdown) to return incidence to low levels; advice to work from home for all those that can; banning all contact within the home with members of other households, except members of a support bubble; closure of all bars, restaurants, cafes, indoor gyms and personal services (eg hairdressers); all university and college teaching to be online unless face-to-face teaching is absolutely essential," the papers said.

A related paper warned: "As over 90 per cent of the population remains susceptible, not acting now to reduce cases will result in a very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences in terms of direct Covid-related deaths and the ability of the health service to meet needs.

"A package of interventions will need to be adopted to prevent this exponential rise in cases. Single interventions are unlikely to be able to reduce incidence." 

Measures could be imposed at a regional or national level, the papers suggested, but went on to stress: "Both local and national measures are needed: measures should not be applied in too specific a geographical area."

At the Downing Street briefing, Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer and a member of Sage, said he was not confident that the "baseline" measures announced for tier three areas – those with the highest Covid infection rates – would be sufficient to reverse the rise of the virus.

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It left Mr Johnson having to warn local leaders that if they do not agree to lockdown measures, they will be imposed by the Government "to protect public health". The Prime Minister also faces a battle to win over his own MPs, with dozens threatening to withhold support when the three tiers are put to separate votes in Parliament on Tuesday.

He hinted at better news to come for vulnerable people who have been forced to shield as he suggested the Government would change its approach because of the "mental distress and loneliness" it causes.

Unveiling the long-awaited three-tier system, he said it would simplify the complex and confusing rules imposed on different areas.

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The lowest tier, for "medium" risk areas, will involve current restrictions of the "rule of six" and 10pm curfew for pubs and restaurants, while the middle tier, for "high" risk areas, will ban household mixing indoors. The top tier, for "very high" risk areas, will force pubs to close unless they can operate as restaurants, as well as banning household mixing indoors and outdoors and advising against travel to and from those areas.

Liverpool, which agreed to be placed into the top tier, will receive £14 million of extra funding for more testing to help the city through the next month, after which the lockdown will be reviewed.

But local leaders in other areas were resistant to the idea of agreeing to be put into tier three. Mr Johnson said talks were continuing with local leaders in the North-West, North-East and Yorkshire and the Humber about the approach and the support available if they moved into the third tier.

He said: "We want to take local authorities with us... if we if we can't get agreement, then clearly it is the duty of a national Government to take the necessary action to to protect public health."

Andy Street, the Tory Mayor of the West Midlands, said he was "disappointed" that his area was being placed into tier two, adding: "This is not something regional leaders supported, nor what I believed would be happening following extensive conversations over recent days."

He said the Government's approach was inconsistent, with the West Midlands having only a quarter of the case rate of Manchester – which has been placed in the same tier.

Mr Johnson acknowledged that there were "anomalies" but said that was "inevitably going to happen in a complex campaign against a pandemic like like this". Speaking at a Downing Street press conference, he said the latest figures on infections were "flashing at us like dashboard warnings in a passenger jet, and we must act now".

Asked whether the toughest lockdown measures would be enough to combat the virus in places such as Liverpool, however, Prof Whitty said they did not go far enough unless local leaders agreed to extra closures on top of the mandatory ones.

"I am not confident, and nor is anybody confident, that the tier three proposals for the highest rates, if we did the absolute base case and nothing more, would be enough to get on top of it," he said.

In Liverpool, Metro Mayor Steve Rotheram has agreed to close gyms and leisure centres as well as pubs, but other local leaders are holding out for more support from the Government for businesses and workers affected.

After being repeatedly praised by Mr Johnson for agreeing to the new measures, Mr Rotheram claimed on Monday night that he had not in fact agreed to them. He said: "It was the Government that decided we needed local restrictions in our area... it wasn't local leaders, and it's disingenuous for them to indicate otherwise. There was no choice with the tier that we were going into."

Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, appeared to have won his personal battle for a more "balanced" approach, as plans to close pubs entirely in tier three areas were watered down slightly to allow them to stay open if they could operate as restaurants.

They will only be allowed to serve alcohol with a "substantial meal" – but the Government has not defined what counts as a substantial meal or how many drinks can be served with one.

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Nigel Farage, the Brexit Party leader, suggested pubs in tier two might as well close straight away because their custom will plummet as a result of the ban on households mixing.

In the Commons, Conservative MPs lined up to criticise the new system. Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories, sought reassurances that areas will not be left in a "permanent state" with restrictions in place.

He said: "The Prime Minister has said there will be a four-week 'sunset' for areas in the highest restrictions. What reassurance can he give to areas in tiers one and two, some of which have had additional restrictions already for two and a half months, that this isn't going to become a permanent state?"

Fellow Tory Philip Davies called on Mr Johnson to "once again put his trust in the British people to act responsibly".

He said: "Instead of a constant blizzard of arbitrary rules which will only serve to collapse the economy and destroy businesses and jobs, will he instead remind people what's important – social distancing, washing hands, the groups who are most at risk, the elderly, people with health conditions etc, and once again put his trust in the British people to act responsibly?

"After all, believing that individuals make better decisions for themselves, their families and their communities than the state can make for them is surely at the heart of what it means to be a Conservative?"

Asked whether the lockdown measures could go on for another year if no vaccine is found by the spring, Prof Whitty hinted that they could when he said: "I am extremely confident that when we go into the next winter we will do so in a remarkably better place than we do today."

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