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For the first time in five weeks, Liverpool is hopeful. Joe Anderson, the city's Mayor, has seen a "dramatic shift" in Covid cases since Liverpool entered the toughest restrictions in the country on October 14.
"We told the Government about the figures dropping dramatically across the region, Matt Hancock is aware of the decrease to 162 per 100,000 compared to 700 per 100,000 five weeks ago, so we are hopeful we will move to Tier 2," Mr Anderson told The Telegraph.
He said the lower figures, coupled with the fact that Liverpool will continue to conduct mass testing, "makes the case" for the city to move down a level.
The crude understanding is that regions with high numbers of cases will face tighter measures, while those with fewer cases will have their restrictions relaxed.
However, Government sources hinted that despite its improved figures, Liverpool may be stuck within the harshest regulations, even though it recently took part in a mass testing pilot.
A Number 10 source said: "The Prime Minister made it clear [in his speech on Monday] that there would be more areas in higher tiers than before and that those areas already in higher tiers are still likely to be in higher tiers come December 2."
Such negative news will test the nation's waning resolve.
"It's about doing the right thing for friends, family, our community and the city," Mr Anderson added. "But there will be those who will question if you do the right things and have to stay in higher tiers, is it worth it? From my point of view, we've done everything that was asked of us.”
When the second lockdown is lifted on December 2, the Joint Biosecurity Centre will help to decide the regional tiers, with the Covid "quad committee" believed to have some discretion over the decision-making process. Its members include Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary.
Instead of using an algorithm, as had been mooted, officials will look at a balance of five criteria – coronavirus cases across all age groups, specifically among the over-60s, the rate at which cases are rising or falling, the number of positive cases detected as a percentage of tests taken and projected pressure on the NHS.
Analysis of coronavirus rates by The Telegraph found that while the most infected areas in the North-West and North-East have seen a significant fall in cases, rates remain stubbornly high.
Infections have also been rising in previously less-affected southern areas, suggesting tougher tiers are coming – and with them another possible Tory revolt. Few areas have testing under control.
MPs have argued that the new tiers lack "clarity" and will serve to do more damage to the economy. Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, said the measures needed to be more specific.
"We don't have the clarity. The tiers that are being envisaged, particularly the even more stringent Tier 3, would be extremely damaging for places that find themselves locked in it," he told The World at One show.
Asked whether he would vote against further tiered restrictions, Sir Graham said: "I don't know yet what the substance of the votes that will be offered will be, but my inclination would be to oppose this."
The former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith is one of a number of MPs who represent constituencies in the South to be pushing back against being placed in the highest tiers by local public health authorities.
He accused the Government of treating the capital in a "cavalier way" and said: "London is critical to the UK's economy. Just the West End represents four per cent of GDP, and it is completely dead."
Bob Blackman, the Tory MP for Harrow East, said he believed the scientists "will be battling to get us into Tier 2" and added that "they'd like to get us into Tier 3 if they could".
"Tier 3 is way above what other areas of the country are in in terms of level of infection," he said. "We are arguing that the difference between the worst affected area and least in London is a three-fold difference."
Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor, said: "London going into Tier 2 next week would seem the right and sensible decision," adding that closing "London's unique ecosystem of bars, restaurants, clubs and cultural venues" throughout Christmas would be "a hammer blow".
Shaun Bailey, the Tory Mayoral candidate, told The Telegraph that business owners in the capital "have gone above and beyond to make their businesses Covid-safe" as he urged Mr Johnson to "protect the health of London's economy".
He said: "The harsh truth is that we can't do that if London gets put into Tier 3 after the current lockdown has ended. If the capital is put into Tier 3, with pubs, restaurants, hotels and indoor attractions forced to close, with restrictions on every business, then we can't be surprised when more Londoners lose jobs and more businesses close their doors for good."
Mr Bailey added that he hoped the Government took into account the "livelihoods and mental health of Londoners" as it decided what tier it should move into and said: "These issues are too important to be sidelined."
Amid growing resentment at a perceived "North-South divide", Tory WhatsApp groups have lit up with "fury" and "anger" over the post-lockdown plan, according to one senior Tory, who said: "The idea seems to be to move everybody up, Tier 2 becomes a shady Tier 3, Tier 3 is lockdown. Tier 1 is all but abolished.
"There's fury and anger at Boris Johnson on the back benches about this. He doesn't seem to care about the economic impact all of this is having. There's going to be a major revolt."
As Philip Davies, the MP for Shipley, near Bradford, said: "Basically it's pretty clear that every place in Tier 1 will be in the south of England only. There's going to be this major North-South divide which will fly in the face of the Government's levelling up agenda. Did they not foresee this was going to be a problem? I won't be voting for all this rubbish."
MPs will be invited to vote on the new tier system next week, with swathes of the 70-strong Covid Recovery Group of lockdown sceptic Tories expected to rebel.
Chris Green, the MP for Bolton West, who voted against the second lockdown, said: "There were plenty of MPs who voted for it last time but said 'never again'."