Covid-19 vaccine shortage fears as Britain misses production targets

Britain will not have the capacity to roll out a vaccine widely before Christmas after missing targets to produce 30 million doses by September, it has emerged.

Kate Bingham, the chair of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, told MPs that supplies of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine were currently in their “low millions” and that she was expecting only four million to be available by the end of the year.

In May, the Government promised that 30 million vaccines would be ready by September to allow for immediate mass deployment if trials were successful. 

Oxford University says it is still possible that they could see successful results by the end of the year, but the latest hurdle means huge numbers of people would still be unable to get the jab, even after a positive outcome. 

At the Science and Technology Select Committee on Wednesday, chair Greg Clark asked whether targets set by ministers had been met. 

Mrs Bingham responded: “No. So, that 30 million doses was assuming a linear yield on scale up. 

“The projections, which were made in good faith, assumed absolutely everything would work, and that there were no hiccups in terms of how you scale up.

“It’s not through lack of care and attention or availability, it’s just that it normally takes a very long time. We’re growing viral cells; it's not a straightforward activity. It is challenging.”

The Government is likely to vaccinate older and vulnerable people first, as well as healthcare workers. Some NHS trusts have already been warned to prepare for a mass vaccination programme before Christmas.

Yet there are 12 million over-65s and around 1.4 million healthcare workers, so the hold-up means that fewer than one quarter would be able to access the jab.

Mr Clark pointed out that the purpose of the 30 million scale-up was to “convey the idea that Britain was getting ahead of the curve and anticipating the need for a mass vaccination programme.

“If we are in the prospect of having a low number of millions then that is not going to be available for mass deployment the moment that we get approval,” he said.

However Mrs Bingham said that deploying millions of vaccines would take time and the lack of drugs would not cause a hold up.

“Actually we’re going to have more vaccines than we’re able to deploy,” she said. “I don’t think vaccine supply is going to be the limiting factor.”

Earlier in the hearing, Andrew Pollard, the chief trial investigator for the Oxford Vaccine, said he was still hopeful that results would be available before Christmas, but that the vaccine would still need approval before it could be deployed.

Speaking about the results he said: “I am optimistic we could reach that point before the end of the year.

“Two steps have to happen after that. All of the data needs to be put together and presented to the regulators both here and in other countries, the regulators have to review all of that so there is careful scrutiny, to look at the integrity and quality and data and verify it.

“And then the policy decisions will be about who should get it. For our bit we're getting closer but we’re not there yet.”

Professor Robin Shattock, who is leading the development of Imperial’s Covid-19 vaccine, said they were expecting their vaccine to be available by next Summer.

The pair said trials were due to begin to test the vaccine on children. 

Prof Pollard added: “As far as giving the vaccine to children, clinical trials are being planned and those trials are being planned, but we don’t have any data about immune response. I anticipate that will happen at the end of this year or next year.

“Vaccines in children will be a policy decision. There may  be groups of children who are particularly at risk of serious disease, or a broader use might have wider benefits for children and society as a whole.”

However, Prof Shattock said he did not think the vaccine would be immediately rolled out to young children. He warned the risk of side effects may not be worth the benefit for children, because they are not at great risk from the virus.