Mass testing could end the need for two weeks of self-isolation, Boris Johnson said yesterday as he exhorted an “anxious, weary and fed-up” nation to follow lockdown rules.
The prime minister limited his room for manoeuvre to extend restrictions beyond four weeks on the first day of the England-wide lockdown, saying he had “no doubt” that “we will get things open again before Christmas”.
Holding out the prospect of rapid mass testing being piloted in Liverpool as a “real way forward through the crisis”, Mr Johnson said in Downing Street: “People will have as normal a Christmas as possible.”
Sir Simon Stevens, the chief executive of NHS England, who appeared alongside the prime minister, was more cautious. He said only that the period of four weeks was sufficient to show whether hospital admissions had levelled off or fallen as a result.
Mr Johnson said: “The advice I have received suggests that four weeks is enough for these measures to make a real impact. So these rules will expire, and on December 2 we plan to move back to a tiered approach. There is light at the end of the tunnel. These are difficult times. While it pains me to have to ask once again for so many to give up so much, I know we can get through this.”
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Critics noted, however, that Mr Johnson stopped short of ruling out another extension. He ducked a question on whether he would be willing to force through another lockdown with Labour votes in the Commons.
Under pressure to reassure his backbenchers, the prime minister insisted the measures were “time limited”. He said that they were not a “repeat of the spring” in which a lockdown initially imposed for three weeks continued for more than three months.
While scientists say the lockdown can do no more than delay rising case numbers, Mr Johnson said that “technical advances” such as rapid tests would allow a less restrictive approach.
Lateral flow tests that give results in minutes and can be carried out without supervision are part of pilot schemes offering all residents of Liverpool tests in the coming weeks, with centres for mass screening opening today. “These really are full of promise, I do think that testing does offer a real way forward for this country,” Mr Johnson said. Accepting that the test-and-trace system had not been as successful as hoped in getting infectious people to self-isolate, he added: “When you move, as we will, to ever more immediate test results you help people to know whether they’re positive or negative in real time. And so you’re gradually able to remove the need for that quarantine and that period of self-isolation.”
It is understood government scientists are looking at whether contacts of coronavirus cases can be given tests every day for two weeks and be allowed to go about as normal if negative.
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Mr Johnson praised testing in Slovakia, which plans to test its entire population. He said that mass rapid testing would allow a return towards normal. “The advantage of this approach is that you can tell whether people are infectious or not immediately, within 10-15 minutes,” he said. “Without having to worry about the time taken to get the answer from the current testing system, you can help those people to self-isolate if they test positive, and if they test negative, then of course, they’re free to do things with other people who test negative in something close to a normal way.”
Sir Simon cautioned people against expecting lockdown to ease the burden on the NHS immediately, saying only that it would be clear by the end of four weeks if the restrictions had prevented hospitals being overwhelmed. “What we are hoping and expecting, is that we will not see the large further increase in hospitalisations [projected by models].”
It was reported last night that official projections that suggested the rate of Covid-19 deaths would soon be worse than during the first wave had been revised after they were presented as part of the case for a second lockdown.
Graphs shown at a Downing Street press conference last Saturday indicated that there could be up to 1,500 coronavirus deaths a day in England by early next month. The government admitted, however, that the figures were too high and added that they had been “amended”, The Daily Telegraph said.
The revised projection now forecasts that the upper limit of daily coronavirus deaths will be 1,000 by December 8, on par with April’s peak. A government spokesman said: “The main consensus projection remains unaltered.”
