A slow implementation of the vaccine could mean growth in Scotland would not return to pre-pandemic levels for almost three years, researchers claim.
The Fraser of Allander Institute has set out three scenarios in its latest economic commentary. Its central scenario predicts normality will return by August 2022, while the most optimistic prediction says February 2022.
It said that with a vaccine being introduced there was “a greater likelihood of an optimistic scenario” than before, but it said a pessimistic scenario of business closures, rising unemployment and a slow vaccination programme would mean the economy not getting back to normality until September 2023.
The think tank’s report said unemployment would rise to 7.5 per cent by the second quarter of next year as the